Two of world football’s grandest names are already booking flights home. Germany are out. So are the Netherlands. Both went the cruellest way possible — on penalties — in the World Cup’s new Round of 32, and their exits have cracked the bottom half of the bracket wide open.
This was meant to be the tournament where the giants had room to breathe. Forty-eight teams, twelve groups, a gentler group stage that ushered through the eight best third-placed sides. Instead, the first true knockout round delivered the kind of jeopardy that used to wait until the quarter-finals.
- Germany lost 4-3 on penalties to Paraguay after a 1-1 draw; the Netherlands fell 3-2 on penalties to Morocco.
- All three co-hosts — the United States, Canada and Mexico — reached the Round of 16.
- Spain, France, Argentina, Portugal, England and Brazil all survived their Round of 32 ties.
The two shootouts that rewrote the bracket
Paraguay were not supposed to be the story of the first weekend. Then they held Germany to a 1-1 draw, dragged the tie to penalties, and won the shootout 4-3. Germany — four-time world champions, a side that has reached at least the quarter-finals in most tournaments across the past three decades — are gone before the last 16.
Morocco’s elimination of the Netherlands carried a different flavour. This is a Moroccan generation that reached the semi-finals in 2022, and their 3-2 shootout win after a 1-1 draw felt less like an upset and more like a statement. Two European heavyweights, two penalty defeats, one weekend. The seeding math that looked so comfortable on paper has already been torn up.
Why penalties keep swallowing the favourites
There is a pattern worth naming. In a 48-team field, the group stage rewards squad depth and game management. The Round of 32 does the opposite: it is a single knockout with no cushion, often played in punishing summer heat across North America. Favourites who coast can be dragged into 120 minutes and a shootout by any side with a plan and a goalkeeper. Germany and the Netherlands found that out the hard way.
The favourites who did their jobs
Not everyone wobbled. Spain looked the most convincing team of the round, brushing aside Austria 3-0. France answered a shaky group stage — they were beaten 4-1 by Norway in their final group game — with a 3-0 win over Sweden built on a Kylian Mbappe double. Argentina, the reigning champions, saw off Jordan 3-1.
England needed a rescue act. Harry Kane’s late double turned a nervy night against Congo DR into a 2-1 win, the kind of result that flatters a performance but keeps a campaign alive. Portugal edged Croatia 2-1, Brazil got past Japan 2-1, Belgium survived a 3-2 thriller with Senegal, Switzerland saw off Algeria 2-0, and Norway carried their momentum into a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast. The elite mostly held — but almost none of them had it easy.
The players carrying the tournament
Every World Cup crowns individuals as much as teams, and this one already has its headliners. Mbappe sits top of FIFA’s official power rankings after dragging France through the group stage and into the last 16; his Sweden double was a reminder that few forwards decide knockout games as reliably. Behind him, Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal has turned promise into production, scoring his first World Cup goal in his hometown as Spain took Austria apart.
Then there is Messi. At 39, the Argentina captain is not merely along for the ride — he is still bending matches to his will and stretching his own World Cup records with every appearance. Kane, meanwhile, is doing the unglamorous captain’s work, his double against Congo DR the difference between progress and a crisis. The stars are showing up when it matters, which is exactly why the early exits feel so seismic.
All three hosts are still standing
For a tournament spread across the United States, Canada and Mexico, the story the organisers wanted has arrived: every host is into the Round of 16. The United States beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0, Canada came through against South Africa, and Mexico stayed perfect by knocking out Ecuador 2-0.
That sets up a compelling second-round slate. Mexico host England on Sunday in what looks like the tie of the round. The United States face a dangerous Belgium on Monday. And Canada draw the toughest assignment of the three: Morocco, fresh from dumping out the Netherlands. Home advantage is real at a World Cup — but so is the quality waiting on the other side of the draw.
The outsiders who suddenly look dangerous
Morocco headline this group. A semi-final side in 2022, they now have a knockout pedigree and a path that opened the moment the Dutch missed from the spot. Norway are the other team worth watching: they beat France 4-1 in the group stage, and in Erling Haaland they have a striker capable of settling any tie on his own. Paraguay, having already knocked out Germany, arrive at the last 16 with nothing to lose. In a tournament where the seeds are tumbling, the teams playing without pressure are exactly the ones the favourites least want to draw.
Has the 48-team format diluted the drama? Not even close
The expanded format drew heavy criticism before a ball was kicked — too many teams, too many dead rubbers, too little jeopardy. The group stage answered some of that with blowouts and shocks in equal measure: Belgium thumped New Zealand 5-1, Senegal put five past Iraq, Spain beat Saudi Arabia 4-0, and Norway’s win over France was the group phase’s loudest alarm bell.
What the format has actually done is stack the knockout rounds with more of everything. There are 104 matches in this tournament, a Round of 32 that never existed before, and a bracket that now runs eight games deep to the final at New York New Jersey Stadium. More entry points have not softened the drama — they have multiplied it.
Our view: this belongs to whoever handles the heat
Our view at Unicorn Blogger is that the exits of Germany and the Netherlands have done more than remove two names — they have handed a genuine opening to the sides in the bottom half of the draw. Morocco are no longer a fun outsider story; they are a semi-final-calibre team with a favourable-looking path, and we would not be surprised to see them reach the last eight.
At the top, we still trust the obvious. Spain look the most complete team in the tournament, Argentina have the greatest player who has ever kicked a ball still bending games to his will, and France have the firepower to win ugly. But if there is one lesson from this Round of 32, it is that squad depth and composure in shootouts matter more than reputation. Mexico versus England on Sunday will tell us plenty about who is built for a North American summer — and who is about to follow Germany out the door.
For the full picture on how we got here, our 2026 World Cup guide breaks down the groups and schedule, while our opening-round talking points and goalscorer rankings track how the contenders reached the knockouts. You can follow live results at FIFA’s official standings and match analysis at ESPN.
